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Re: do leading indicators matter?

Re:  do leading indicators matter?
At 09:48 PM 3/19/2002 +0000, Bill de hÓra wrote:

>Maybe there are no clear reasons why certain technologies matter.
>Credit to Tim Bray for pointing out that some predictors don't seem
>to matter, but I don't think he goes anywhere far enough. I suspect
>that the adoption of technology largely follows a series of frozen
>accidents: you might as well be predicting earthquakes as the next
>big thing.

It's fun to try to figure out what successes have in common, and I think it 
can even be instructive. I learned a lot from The Mythical Man Month, for 

But breakthrough technologies tend to be a bit of a surprise, and hard to 
evaluate at first. If they were easy to evaluate, they wouldn't be 

It's 1905. Someone gives you the following paper to read:


Does this paper matter? Will people still be talking about it in 10 years? 
What are the indications?



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