Re: do leading indicators matter?
At 09:48 PM 3/19/2002 +0000, Bill de hÓra wrote: >Maybe there are no clear reasons why certain technologies matter. >Credit to Tim Bray for pointing out that some predictors don't seem >to matter, but I don't think he goes anywhere far enough. I suspect >that the adoption of technology largely follows a series of frozen >accidents: you might as well be predicting earthquakes as the next >big thing. It's fun to try to figure out what successes have in common, and I think it can even be instructive. I learned a lot from The Mythical Man Month, for instance. But breakthrough technologies tend to be a bit of a surprise, and hard to evaluate at first. If they were easy to evaluate, they wouldn't be revolutionary. It's 1905. Someone gives you the following paper to read: http://www.fourmilab.ch/etexts/einstein/specrel/www/ Does this paper matter? Will people still be talking about it in 10 years? What are the indications? Jonathan
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