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RE: Tim Bray on "Which Technologies Matter?"

  • To: 'Mike Champion' <mc@x...>, xml-dev@l...
  • Subject: RE: Tim Bray on "Which Technologies Matter?"
  • From: "Bullard, Claude L (Len)" <clbullar@i...>
  • Date: Mon, 18 Mar 2002 09:14:02 -0600

rest tim bray
Do the other as well.   Based on those, 
the Semantic Web, DAML, OIL, and maybe 
RDF are headed for the heap too.

RISC succeeded and quietly was absorbed into 
the Intel monopoly.   Once a monopoly exists, 
its leadership is the predictor of success for technologies 
that follow.   MS support was the main factor 
in the success of XML.   All other factors pale 
by comparison.

Anyone think that earlier adoption and less 
public resistance from Netscape on the use 
of XML would have benefitted their independence 
and survival?  Resistance to the markup meme 
seems to do damage.   This is one where 
the markup detractors hurt their businesses.

But there is coming a time when XML will have 
to defend itself.  A solid, clear-eyed, 
experienced and well-informed developer and 
user base will be its best defense.  Keep a 
clean history and don't divide up along 
the lines of who zoomed who.  That is a losing 
strategy because it enables you to weaken 
yourselves and your competitors will use 
the press to help you do it.

len


From: Mike Champion [mailto:mc@x...]

>Finally, if Tim is right, what XML technologies would YOU bet on as 
>market successes?  

I'll beat Paul Prescod to the punch :~) and suggest that if Tim is
right, REST will beat  SOAP-RPC.  That will be a classic
showdown ... EVERY other "predictive" factor would suggest that
SOAP-RPC will win, and 80/20 clearly suggests that REST will win.
That will also test Michael Kay's alternative hypothesis that whatever
gets the most support from the pundits will be the winner.

Seal your ballot and put it in a time capsule to be opened in 2007!





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