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You
should ask Oracle about that. It will vary by business model.
For example, is the technology
a
shrinkwrap product for an established customer base that will easily and quickly
recognize it,
or is
a hard sell required? Is it custom software based on a requirement but
with the implementation
using
'innovative' features such as XML? Is it RFP-driven and what are the
terms of submission
(eg,
can options be substituted for features)? All of that.. but the easiest
thing to look at is the
release cycles for products. How often is a features
release made vs a bug-fixes release? Is
this
averaged across an industry where that industry is classified by releasing
common product
types? How long is it from the time of receipt of an RFP to the
BAFO/BARFO (Best and Final Offer/Best
and
Really Final Offer) to the contract signing? Then what is the
ARO (Time After Receipt of Order)
for
delivery (and this has to be scheduled with the Release Cycle). Release
cycles subsume
development, certification, packaging, etc., so it is a much longer cycle
than people suspect.
In
other words, most of the information you are looking for varies by business
model. Some companies
such
as Oracle have deep and very broad budgets for releases because they also have a
deep and
broad
customer base. However, Oracle delivery of a release is followed by the
cycle time as
described above of the middle tier vendors who build applications on top
of their products. And,
don't
forget that Oracle is only one part of the framework. Above the DB
sits the client/server
system
for the application. And if Oracle offers it but Microsoft SQL
Server doesn't, the feature
is
slowed for adoption because the RFPs sometimes do and sometimes don't let the
vendor
select
the DB system. For that reason, ODBC and middleware are used to map even
simple
things
like primitive data types. In other words, even if Oracle puts it in 10g,
it has to be
incorporated into the release cycle of the application vendor and this
party responds to the
content of the RFP.
I'd
like to say this happens in linear time, but only from a high level does that
happen. The
closer
you get to the actual code being written, the more elastic does the schedule
become
and
the more local. That is why the numbers I gave you seem
large. They are actually
somewhat conservative and based on having existing product to work
with.
I
don't object to RDF or any CG-style triple. It is that the more of
this we see, the longer
it
will be from the time it is a draft spec or standard to it being procurable, so
where systems
are
mission-critical (gotta go right now or sooner), the more likely it is that the
exotic
features will be ignored. Any specification that a customer
really wants has to be fit
into a
multi-dimensional scheduling view that is about as reliably predictable as a
wave
function operating under the exclusion principle. The more the Feds
push down
from
the top, the simpler that push must be because the States and the local agencies
can't
buy often or much. Federal grants are used to procure local systems
and
the money being used to keep forces overseas is coming
out of
budgets that would otherwise finance infrastructure. The budget
meltdown
combined with the deficits (and all of those forces) mean that
within the timeframe
I
predict we will see these technologies enter the near-time procurements, it is
likely
they
will be axed and simpler solutions will be tendered.
Remember Bosnia? It killed a lot of technical innovation, and it
was cost-trivial compared
to the
current adventure. So when I ask about roll-out schedules, I am
deadly serious.
I
suspect that before the middle of next year, there will be some hard and
detailed
questioning of HS-related initiatives, so the technological wishlist has
to be practical
and as
simple in implementation as possible. We have a long and bloody
thing to
do and
we have yet to really start securing homeland systems in the way they must
be for
the next stage of a conflict in which all we have yet seen are the opening
moves.
len
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