[XML-DEV Mailing List Archive Home] [By Thread] [By Date] [Recent Entries] [Reply To This Message] Re: SOAP and the Web
Hi Mark, Mark said: > That discipline isn't gratuitous, it's to enable ad hoc communication > over a network between uncoordinated parties. Without the discipline, > you lose that. Which is why we've seen public Web services deployed on > the Internet "blossom" from 35 to 165 in about a year; > > http://www.markbaker.ca/2002/04/WebServicesGrowth/ > > This use of SOAP *cannot* win, no matter how much developers like it, or > how much hype it receives. > Didier replies: Two factors contribute to the fact that, in the actual conditions, we won't have the same growth factor for web services as we saw for the web: a) Amounts of available money to experiment. Just remember how much money has been invested in the web. That was during a huge "bull" period in which, VC and public investors injected fortunes on "the next big thing". The good result is that if even goose can fly when it is very windy :-) this created momentum and provoked a herd effect with the secondary advantage of a massive effort to build the web. This huge wave supported by billions of $ even scared Microsoft's billions of $. To better understand the factors behind such bubble may I suggest a book from Alasdair Nairn - Engines That Moves Markets (Technology investing from railroads to the intenet and beyong). I personally learned how little humanity learns from the mistakes of the past or from a different perspective, that technological progresses sometimes needs some "irrational exuberance" in order to succeed. b) Web services arrived at times where money is rare. During "Bear" times and just after a big bubble. So close to the after bubble's losses that people are now cautious. So, a first problem for web services: not as much funds available as for the web. "Sorry the guys before you ate the pie and nothing is left" :-) A second problem is to find good business models since now, entrepreneurs are required to present business models with positive cash flows in contrast to the previous era where the only requirement was to catch eyeballs (Off course people want free lunches :-). If some innovative businessman find ways to create positive cash flows from web services then others will follow. Expect slow acceptance of any technology after a bubble proposing free lunches especially if that technology is not free. A potential area of growth is for products adding new feature in order to increase their competitiveness in the market place. For example, Siebel adding a web service front end to their software. In any aftermath things are moving a lot slower than in times of euphoria. Conclusion: its not so much a question of technical merits as simply a question of funds. Sorry to kill illusions with a such utilitarian approach. cheers Didier PH Martin
|
PURCHASE STYLUS STUDIO ONLINE TODAY!Purchasing Stylus Studio from our online shop is Easy, Secure and Value Priced! Download The World's Best XML IDE!Accelerate XML development with our award-winning XML IDE - Download a free trial today! Subscribe in XML format
|