[XML-DEV Mailing List Archive Home] [By Thread] [By Date] [Recent Entries] [Reply To This Message] Success factors for the Web and Semantic Web
Obviously the patronage of Tim Berners-Lee has given the semantic web movement much of its name recognition and good PR. Tim B-L was clearly visionary in developing the Web as we know it (URIs, HTTP, and HTML), so I think it would be useful to compare the factors that drove the success of the Web with those that appear to be driving the SW. I would say that the success of the Web was due mainly to: - Its leveraging of the TCP/IP infrastructure already in place - The "network effect" that caused the value of the Web to increase exponentially as it grew - The fact that it met a real, if largely un-recognized, human and business need - The fact that HTTP and HTML were easy and cheap to implement and use OK, how do the SW concept and its technologies (I'm referring mainly to Tim BL's vision as stated in http://www.w3.org/DesignIssues/Semantic.html and reported at http://www.xml.com/pub/a/2000/12/xml2000/timbl.html) fare if we extrapolate these same success factors? - It clearly DOES leverage the Web infrastructure. - It presumably WILL have a strong network effect (although the "local vs global ontologies" discussion makes me wonder about this) - Does it really meet a real, unmet human and business need? As several people have mentioned, the search engines, especially Google, are getting pretty darned useful lately. True, this is partly due to the promotion of metadata and the synergy between the search engines and the HTML <meta> ag - if you want good placement in a search engine, you put good metadata in your HTML. But it's due largely, as Paul Tchistopolskii points out, to algorithms that extract useful information from the HTML itself, especially the "page ranking" technique. The SW might offer real advantages over what we have now, but not enough to overcome the "worse is better" bias built into our brains, economic system, etc. - Will it be easy and cheap to implement and use? This is where the SW advocates have got, as near as I can tell, an unbridgeable chasm between them and the real world. I'll bet that virtually everyone reading this list "grokked" the URI/HTTP/HTML web concept very quickly, could hack up HTML pages easily, etc. On the other hand, after MONTHS of discussion here, people are still pleading for a coherent explanation of what the SW really is, begging to see plausible demonstrations, and basically hearing (from Tim BL, no less) that one must be patient and have faith. He wasn't saying that about the WWW 10 years ago, he was demonstrating useful examples that he hacked up! He just cultivated the memes for URI/HTTP/HTML, set them loose, and watched them take over the world. This just ain't happening with the SW memes; they've taken hold in some niches with extremely nuturing environments, but haven't gotten anywhere in the cold cruel world at large. I guess I'm envisioning a URI/HTTP/XML Web in 10 years or so that looks a lot like the WWW today, with search engines rather than logic engines still being the primary way of finding new information. I do expect them to use more sophisticated RDF metadata embedded in XML as well the HTML <meta> tags, to use some topic maps or link bases to aid the search in certain (probably limited) domains. But I can't forsee a "semantic web" of universal ontologies guiding the development of logic bases that are exploited by millions of autonomous agents running around deriving interesting knowledge. I would be astonished if this proves to be economically, or intellectually or technologically feasible in the next 25 or even 50 years. Like Len Bullard, I remember all too well how certain many were 25 years ago that this kind of "AI" would be a reality by the end of the 20th century. This whole discussion is gives me a rather stark sense of deja vu ... and while computers are several orders of magnitude more powerful than they were in 1975, the rest of the intellectual infrastructure needed to make the semantic web a reality has not progressed anywhere near as much. So, I'm staying open minded about improved metadata and link bases/topic maps, and especially about how to build better searching tools that use all this data, metadata, and metametadata in a coherent way. But I am deeply skeptical about the possibility of coming up with useful, universal ontologies that would underly all the RDF assertions that the semantic web would depend on, and deeply skeptical that there will be a sufficient economic rationale for users to produce and maintain the complex metadata that would support it. Would anyone care to try to convince me that: a) Tim B-L's "semantic web" of universal ontologies/RDF logic bases/interoperable logic processors would solve PRACTICAL problems of knowledge mangement dramatically better than what we can do with our brains, the WWW, and databases/search engines? and b) The logic bases and metadata to support Tim BL's vision could be developed, maintained and used by ordinary humans who are just trying to get their jobs done?
|
PURCHASE STYLUS STUDIO ONLINE TODAY!Purchasing Stylus Studio from our online shop is Easy, Secure and Value Priced! Download The World's Best XML IDE!Accelerate XML development with our award-winning XML IDE - Download a free trial today! Subscribe in XML format
|