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Review

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Issue 6 July 15, 2014

Police statistics The second main source of crime statistics are official police statistics, based on crimes reported to the police, regardless of whether a conviction follows. Although previously believed to be reliable for types of crime that were likely to be reported, this is no longer necessarily the case, with recent revelations about the downgrading of crimes,⁷ the failure to record others,⁸ and the consequent removal of the UK Statistics’ Agency’s approval from all police crime stats in January of this year.⁹ The investigation that led to this removal of approval was carried out by the Public Administration Select Committee, which published its full report in April 2014, stating that there is strong evidence that the police under-record crime, particularly sexual crimes such as rape, in many police areas, due to “lax compliance with the agreed national standard of victim-focussed crime recording.”¹⁰ Until 2006, police statistics were analysed by the Audit Commission, at which point that requirement was removed. In 2007 the Audit Commission published a short follow-up report on crime statistics,¹¹ after which police forces were left to their own devices in terms of the collection and analysis of crime statistics. In 2012, Her Majesty’s Inspectorate of Constabulary (HMIC) published its first full report on the quality of crime data.¹² This showed some improvement from an interim 2009 report, in which only 64 per cent of decisions to record violent incidents and serious crimes as “no crime” had been correct; by 2012 it was 84 per cent, suggesting greater recording accuracy, and less evidence of “downgrading” crimes to be classed as non-criminal (although crimes of a more serious nature may still be downgraded to a lesser seriousness). However, after whistleblowing by serving officers, potential manipulation of crime statistics again came to the attention of both the public and HMIC in late 2013. This led to the publication, in April 2014, of an interim report during ongoing investigations.¹³ Police crime figures have other limitations besides the risk of deliberate manipulation in order to meet official targets. Of these the most important is the reluctance of certain groups of victims to report offences against them to the police. These victims fall broadly into two categories; those that do not report because of the nature of the crime against them, and those who do not report for cultural reasons, such as distrust of the police, or cultural expectations of women, for example.

Most recent statistics on crime incidence Latest figures from the CSEW estimate that there were 7.5 million crimes against households and resident adults in

7 HMIC, Crime Recording in Kent: A report commissioned by the Police and Crime Commissioner for Kent, (London: HMIC, 2013) p.4. 8 Public Administration Select Committee, Caught Red-handed: Why we can’t rely on Police Recorded Crime (London: TSO, 2014). 9 UK Statistics’ Authority, Assessment of compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics: Statistics on Crime in England and Wales, Assessment Report 268 (London: UK Statistics’ Authority, 2014). 10 Ibid., fn.8 above. 11 Audit Commission, Police data quality 2006/7 (London: Audit Commission, 2007). 12 HMIC, The Crime Scene: A review of police crime and incident reports (London: HMIC, 2012). 13 HMIC, Crime recording: A matter of fact (London: HMIC, 2014).

the previous 12 months in December 2013.¹⁴ This was down 15 per cent when compared with the previous year’s survey, and is the lowest estimate since the survey began in 1981. Police crime figures for the period since 1981 have also shown a reduction in recent years, albeit one that is less marked. In 2012-2013, for which the CSEW estimated there were 7.5 million crimes, the police recorded 3.7 million.¹⁵ The highest level of crime estimated by the CSEW was 19,000,000 in 1996. Since then, rates of CSEW-reported crime have decreased steadily until 2004/2005, followed by small fluctuations until the present.¹⁶ The peak in policerecorded crime came in 2003/2004 of just over 6,000,000 crimes. The most recent decrease in CSEW crime was largely influenced by decreases in a range of offence groups, including: household theft (down 25 per cent); violence (down 22 per cent); and vandalism (down 15 per cent).¹⁷ Meanwhile, the police-recorded 2012-2013 figure included decreases across most of the main categories of police-recorded crime, although shoplifting continued to increase (by 6 per cent in the year ending December 2013), as did violence against the person offences recorded by the police (but only by 1 per cent, thought to reflect improvements in recording and possibly a rise in public reporting). The biggest increase in a category of police-recorded crime was sexual offences; these increased by 17 per cent. This is probably due to a cultural shift in approach towards historic sexual offences. The differences in data collection methods and their effectiveness at recording certain types of crime are starkly illustrated by comparing the most recent CSEW figures for violent crime to the most recent police statistics on recorded incidences of violent crime for the year ending December 2013; whilst the CSEW has reported a 22 per cent decrease in the same period, the number of such incidences recorded by police has increased by 1 per cent. But when looked at in the round, both sets of figures illustrate that the number of crimes committed each year is falling. This article will now set out the most recent statistics released by the Ministry of Justice on the way in which offences are dealt with within criminal justice system after having been reported (the most recent statistics are those for 2013, as published on May 15, 2014).¹⁸

Out of court disposals The notion that the criminal justice system has “gone soft on crime” arises in part from public concern about what is thought to be the excessive use of out of court disposals. Out of court disposals were en vogue in the mid-2000s, and thus much used; their use was highest in 2007, with nearly 700,000 out of court disposals.¹⁹ Since then, however, their use has declined, partly due to “populist punitiveness”²⁰ which has led politicians to (wrongly) perceive that the

14 Ibid., fn.5 above. 15 Ibid., fn.4 above, p.13. 16 Ibid., fn.5 above. 17 Ibid. 18 Ibid., fn.4 above. 19 Ibid., fn.4 above, p.8. 20 A. Bottoms, “The Philosophy and Politics of Punishment and Sentencing” in C. Clarkson and R. Morgan (eds), The Politics of Sentencing Reform, (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1995) pp. 17–49.